Security Level 3: Restricted
Per your request, I have prepared a series of figures related to civilian and personnel on Deep Space 13.
Prior to the Azedi attack upon Deep Space 13, our total population of permanent residents was 54,730. Our current population of permanent residents is 4,744. This represents a change of -49,986 (-91.33%). Note that the station's maximum capacity (with standard habitation assignments) is 76,950, and the station's emergency capacity (with emergency habitation assignments) is 256,500. The changes in personnel levels are further detailed below:
ASSIGNED PERSONNEL: prior 35,000 / now 4,313 / change -30,687 (-87.68%)
Breakdown by Department:
Command: prior 200 / now 150 / change -50 (-25%)
Operations: prior 10,000 / now 412 / change -9,588 (-95.88%)
Tactical: prior 600 / now 88 / change -512 (-85.33%)
Security: prior 2,000 / now 485 / change -1,515 (-75.75%)
Intelligence: prior 40 / now 35 / change -5 (-12.5%)
Engineering: prior 15,260 / now 2,000 / change -13,260 (-86.89%)
Science: prior 4,000 / now 183 / change -3,817 (-95.43%)
Medical: prior 2,700 / now 800 / change -1,900 (-70.37%)
Counseling: prior 200 / now 160 / change -40 (-20%)
RESIDENTS AND EMPLOYEES: prior 19,730 / now 431 / change -19,299 (-97.82%)
Breakdown by Type:
Residents (Civilians and Non-Starbase Fleet Personnel): prior 17,243 / now 431 / change -16,812 (-97.50%)
Employees (Independent Civilian Contractors): prior 2,487 / now 0 / change -2,487 (-100%)
Conclusions: Deep Space 13 is built to comfortably support up to 76,950 inhabitants as needed. Prior to the attack, the station was at 71% of that figure. It is currently down to merely 6% despite the fact that the military situation in the sector has made Deep Space 13's operational value more, not less, important. That the staffing situation is unworkable beyond the immediate short-term ought not require additional explanation. The stark figures above speak for themselves.
Consequently, whilst staffing levels remain at the extremely low figures of this present time, I do not see how the station can possibly operate securely if the intention is to reopen the station fully to civilians, especially if the civilian populace approaches anything like its previous numbers. Unless I instruct the Security Department to form press gangs to round up and impress able-bodied civilians into compulsory Starfleet service, I will not have the numbers of personnel needed to address the manifold issues related to a high civilian population in addition to the bare minimum operational expectations of the starbase with regard to providing support for a standing fleet of nearly one hundred active starships (to say nothing of service for Starfleet ships beyond those in this fleet).
With that said, my projections are that, after an initial surge in returns comprised mainly of business-dealing civilians and independent contractors (an estimated 3,000-3,500 people), growth will increase slowly over time, levelling off only as a result of another morale-negative event, such as an attack, or due to a too-high ratio of civilians to starfleet personnel. Projections follow:
Civilian and employee population projections based on Low / Medium / High rates of growth:
Stardate 95413: 3,150 / 4,063 / 5,250
Stardate 95666: 3,370 / 5,119 / 8,006
Stardate 95915: 3,640 / 6,500 / 12,410
Stardate 96161: 4,004 / 8,321 / 19,545
As indicated above, if population tracks according to my high-end projections, the starbase could approach pre-attack civilian and employee levels in as little as one year's time. According to my low-end growth projections, that population figure would be reached in just over three years, instead. These figures do not predict for growth thresholds related to population ratio, or caused by unpredictable events such as yearly disruptions to starbase life or habitability.
In order to track ahead of the civilian population to avoid reaching the aforementioned threshholds (which would quickly become necessarily institutional and formalised, likely in the form of a restriction on new arrivals, or a waiting list for residency), starbase personnel population should grow at least 5% ahead of median expected civilian and emplyee growth per quarter, with such projections continually updated and modeled according to current data on hand. At present, because the initial surge and growth levels have a high margin of error due to minimal data, the projections above may magnify those margins, and may track far above or below the levels actually experienced by stardate 96161. However, by stardate 95413, enough data should be available to significantly reduce the expected margin of error above (subject to the same caveats related to unexpected events and population threshholds).
Recommendations: Staffing levels should be immediately increased, with priority targetting of departments which are below the previous ratio of personnel to command: i.e. those which have experienced the greatest reductions beyond -25% of their personnel (Command-level being used as the 'baseline' reduction), with prioritisation within cohorts of new arrivals favouring personnel critical to station Operations and Security. Upon completion of this process, starbase personnel will be at 75% of pre-attack levels, with each department having been reduced by 25%. Based on the high-end population growth figures above, it is recommended at this time that the target personnel levels be reached by stardate 95915, such recommendation subject to emendation as new projections become available commensurate with new data.
Logistical details, such as the exact number of personnel and frequency of their arrivals, would require considerable investment of time and resources to calculate, and is contingent upon approval of this proposal; therefore, they are deferred until such time as the above recommendations receive approval, at which time logistical proposals can be formulated with the consultation of the station's Operations department, and submitted to Fleet Command for consultation and review.
If you wish to discuss these matters further, you need not hesitate to inform me.
Starbase Commander, Deep Space 13